Homepage / Archived News or Quarterly News / 1st Quarter 2015
Date Posted: 4/29/2015 @ 4:32AM
The charts analysis and bullion news links on this page are devoted to the precious metals markets during the 1st Quarter of 2015.
When investing in any market, a good way to judge price movement in the future is to learn from the past.
Frederick Douglass
(1818 - 1895) was a former slave who became a famous human rights leader, writer, and statesman during the abolition movement, who once stated, "Knowledge makes a man unfit to be a slave."
The combination of the charts and news (below) helps you gain "knowledge" of these markets, so you won't become a "slave" to them.
The charts below are provided courtesy of
Bullion News
US Dollar Quarterly - Price Chart (January 1st, 2015 - March 31st, 2015)
During the 1st quarter of 2015, the US dollar continued its upward trend. However, like in the last quarter, the dollar has started to consolidate after each move upwards, which is healthy for any market. But, after hitting $100.71, the US dollar looks like it might be topping out.
In addition, the US Dollar's run-up to $100.71 occurred because of the Market's anticipation of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement release.
(continued)
US Dollar 1 year - Price Chart (January 1st, 2014 - March 31st, 2015)
Bullion News
The Financial Media like to extract certain 'words or phrases' out of the Fed's statements to try to predict which way the Fed may or may not move in policy.
The words or phrases have included: "Tapering," "Considerable Time," and most recently, "Patient."
It's all Nonsense the financial media use these words to rile the markets, and sad to say, "it usually works." The Fed changed their wording this time, but they basically said they're not going to raise rates.
Instead, the Fed said it was going to watch market data for future movements in the Federal Funds Rate. After the Fed balked at raising rates, the US Dollar started to lose some of its strength.
The U.S. Dollar and Gold often move in opposite directions; you will be able to see this relationship in price movement in the Gold Analysis Section below.
US Dollar 3 year - Price Chart (January 1st, 2012 - March 31st, 2015)
One possible area for future US Dollar strength (besides an Interest
Rate hike) has to deal with what happens to Greece's place in the
European Union and what happens to its debt. Nobody really knows what
will happen if they exit the Euro; some in the market say the Euro will
fall, which would send the dollar higher. However, others suggest that
it may not be bad for the Euro if Greece exits the currency union.
One thing does seem
certain is that Greece's current government does not favor austerity. The two infographics below have recently come out; they may help you to
understand who Greece owes its debt to and what the possible
consequences are if Greece defaults or exits the Euro.
Greece’s Debt and Who’s on the Hook in a Default
Assessing the Potential Risk of a Greek Default
US Dollar 5 year - Price Chart (April 1st, 2011 - March 31st, 2015)
Bullion News
If you've been paying attention to chart analysis concerning the US Dollar, then you've probably seen the chart below.
It shows the U.S. Dollar chart breaking a thirty-year trend line in its recent rise in price, which is a very good sign for the U.S. Dollar and a very bad sign for Gold.
US Dollar breaking Trend-line
44 year US Dollar Chart courtesy of: Trading Economics
The chart below reveals a pattern of what has happened nearly every time the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates too high: a Recession.
If the Federal Reserve raises rates now, it may do the same as it has done in the past: cause a recession. Their hesitation makes them look scared.
During the 1st Quarter of 2015, the price of gold moved up in the first three weeks to slightly above $1300 a troy ounce, then the price dropped over the next two months to $1140 a troy ounce.
The reasons for gold's price movement during this quarter were mostly dictated by international events and the policies of the world's central banks, the Fed and ECB in particular.
(continued...)
Gold Quarterly - Price Chart (January 1st, 2015 - March 31st, 2015)
continued...
Gold rose for the first several weeks of the quarter due to the fighting between Russia and Ukraine. Also, gold prices have historically moved up in January.
On January 22nd, the ECB (European Central Bank) announced that it was going to start its own version of QE, or Quantitative Easing. See the article here.
The Euro and gold often move in the same direction, and both often (but not always) move in the opposite direction from the US Dollar. Furthermore, even though the European Central Bank's QE program wouldn't start until March 9th, once the ECB announced the QE program, it started to bring down gold and the Euro.
Gold also sold off due to the market's anticipation of an Interest Rate hike by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) at its March 2015 meeting, which will be held on the 17th and 18th of the month.
Ultimately, the Fed did not raise interest rates, even though many had previously predicted they would. In addition, the Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, repeatedly said, during her press conference, that future rate hikes would be data-driven.
continued....
Gold 1year - Price Chart (January 1st, 2014 - March 31st, 2015)
Bullion News
Gold's MACD showed by its movement (chart above) that there were signs late in the 1st quarter of 2015 that the price of gold was going to be moving upward early in the 2nd Quarter of 2015.
However, gold's RSI (upper indicator) shows that strength in the price of gold may correct or consolidate early in the next quarter.
The $1180 price level is an important level for the price of gold; it acts more as a support level because almost every time gold has broken it, the price of gold has moved back above it within a few days or a week at most.
Only when or if gold moves below $1180 and stays below it will it become a very strong Resistance Level for gold.
Gold 3year - Price Chart (January 1st, 2012 - March 31st, 2015)
Bullion News
Gold 5 year - Price Chart (April 1st, 2011 - March 31st, 2015)
Silver Quarterly - Price Chart (January 1st, 2015 - March 31st, 2015)
Bullion News
For the 1st Quarter of 2015, silver's price chart looks almost identical in movement to that of gold's chart. Silver, like gold, is a safe-haven currency, but silver acts more as an industrial metal than a safe-haven currency like gold.
(continued...)
Silver 1 year - Price Chart (January 1st, 2014 - March 31st, 2015)
Bullion News
During the quarter, silver moved up in price, creating a new resistance level of $18.50, and then it broke below the resistance level of $18.00.
(continued...)
Silver 3 year - Price Chart (January 1st, 2012 - March 31st, 2015)
Bullion News
On the 5-year chart below, two trendlines have been drawn; a small one is seen on silver's RSI, and there is a 4-year trendline on silver's MACD.
These trendlines may be an indication that silver is going to move higher in the future; however, time will tell.
Silver 5 year - Price Chart (April 1st, 2011 - March 31st, 2015)
Bullion News
During the 1st Quarter of 2015, the price of Platinum moved in the same pattern as Gold and Silver. It was up early in the quarter, then fell in price for the last two-thirds of the quarter.
continued...
Platinum Quarterly - Price Chart (January 1st, 2015 - March 31st, 2015)
Bullion News
Although Silver and Platinum often trade in the same ways as gold, like a safe haven, their industrial demand caused the two metals to be more volatile in their movement.
Early in the quarter, the price of Platinum tried to test its new resistance level of $1295 a troy ounce, but it was unable.
Platinum 1 year - Price Chart (January 1st, 2014 - March 31st, 2015)
Bullion News
Platinum 3 year - Price Chart (January 1st, 2012 - March 31st, 2015)
Bullion News
Platinum 5 year - Price Chart (April 1st, 2011 - March 31st, 2015)
Bullion News
Palladium Quarterly - Price Chart (January 1st, 2015 - March 31st, 2015)
Bullion News
During most of this quarter, the movement in the price of palladium was very choppy. Although palladium is a precious metal, it primarily trades more as an industrial metal than a safe-haven precious metal like gold. This is because most of its supply is used for automobile catalytic converters.
....continued
Palladium 1 year - Price Chart (January 1st, 2014 - March 31st, 2015)
Bullion News
...continued
In early March, Russia, the world's largest supplier of the precious metal, released a Palladium Export Report. In the report, Russia showed that they exported 21,600 troy ounces of palladium in January, which was more than three times the average monthly rate from the previous year.
See the article here.
Due to this supply report from Russia, the price of Palladium moved down throughout the end of the quarter. However, the RSI (upper indicator) looked to be turning from its oversold position in the quarterly chart - above.
The MACD (lower indicator), on the other hand, continued sloping downward, but it looks to be getting over-extended to the negative.
In conclusion, in the next quarter, palladium may be higher, but only time and demand will tell where the price of palladium will go in the future.
Palladium 3 year - Price Chart (January 1st, 2012 - March 31st, 2015)
Palladium 5 year - Price Chart (April 1st, 2011 - March 31st, 2015)
Bullion News
The charts above are provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
The Quarterly News starts with the end of the quarter articles, first.
Please note that not all of the links below work; the links are kept because the headlines still provide insight into how the markets were moving at the time.
For Bullion Market News...
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